Inside Situational Awareness LP’s Q4 2025 13F
On February 11, 2026, a fund that didn’t exist two years ago filed a 13F disclosing $5.52 billion in public-market positions.1
Situational Awareness LP was founded in mid-2024 by Leopold Aschenbrenner, a 24-year-old former member of OpenAI’s superalignment team who was fired in April of that year, and Carl Shulman, previously a researcher at a Thiel-affiliated macro fund.2 The team is four people. Their backers include Patrick and John Collison, Nat Friedman, and Daniel Gross, alongside family offices, endowments, and institutional LPs.2 Aschenbrenner has reportedly invested nearly all his personal net worth.2
The fund returned +47% net of fees in the first half of 2025, against the S&P 500’s +6%.3 Assets under management went from $1 billion in March 2025 to $5.5 billion by December. There are unverified reports of +100% for the full year.2
The thesis is public. In June 2024, Aschenbrenner self-published a 165-page essay titled “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead."4 The core claim, in his words:
“By 2025/26, these machines will outpace many college graduates. By the end of the decade, they will be smarter than you or I; we will have superintelligence.”
“National security forces not seen in half a century will be unleashed.”
The Q4 13F is what that argument looks like when you put $5.5 billion behind it.
The supply chain in the filing
The portfolio is not a collection of AI stocks. It is a supply chain, built link by link.
Compute and data centres: CoreWeave (CRWV) is the largest combined position at $1.21 billion, 21.96% of assets.^1^ Core Scientific (CORZ, $419M) represents a 9.4% activist-scale ownership stake. The fund filed a Schedule 13D disclosing $213 million deployed through open-market purchases and stating the shares were "acquired for investment because they considered [them] undervalued."^5^ IREN ($329M), Applied Digital ($278M), and six Bitcoin mining and HPC positions round out over $2.2 billion in compute infrastructure.1
Semiconductors and photonics: Intel (INTC, $747M in calls, the fund's pure-options expression of US foundry independence). Tower Semiconductor ($85M, specialty fabrication). Coherent ($89M, photonics). Lumentum ($479M, a new position in Q4 providing optical networking for the data centre backbone).1
Power and fuel: Bloom Energy (BE, $911M combined, the single largest position by dollar value, behind-the-meter fuel cell generation). EQT Corporation ($171M combined, the largest US natural gas producer). Solaris Energy Infrastructure ($86M). Power Solutions International, Babcock & Wilcox, Liberty Energy, and ProPetro provide the industrial equipment and oilfield services to build the physical plant.1
Storage: SanDisk ($250M, increased 817% in Q4).1
Real estate: Kilroy Realty ($50M, new in Q4), a REIT whose portfolio includes data centre properties.1
Hedges: A single put position on Infosys ($8.9M), the only remaining downside protection in the portfolio.1 More on this shortly.
Twenty-eight positions. Chips, compute, networking, storage, power generation, fuel supply, industrial equipment, and the buildings that house it all. Every holding maps to a step between “superintelligence” and the physical world required to produce it.
The instrument choices
The fund holds call options on four names (CRWV, INTC, EQT, and BE) with a combined notional of $1.59 billion.1 The 13F does not disclose strikes, expirations, or premiums paid, and the notional figure represents underlying share value, not capital deployed. But it does disclose how each position is structured between calls and equity. The ratios vary by a factor of 45.
CoreWeave: $774M in calls against $437M in equity, a 1.8-to-1 ratio favouring calls.1 Intel: $747M in calls against $37 in equity. One share. Thirty-seven dollars.1 EQT: 3.5-to-1, equity over calls. Bloom Energy: 25-to-1, equity over calls.1
The fund chose leverage on CoreWeave and Intel. It chose stock on Bloom Energy and EQT. These are not interchangeable decisions.
The position that didn’t move
Intel calls. 20,237,400 share equivalents. $747 million notional. Held at exactly the same size for four consecutive quarters: Q1, Q2, Q3, Q4 2025.6
In a fund that added fifteen new positions in Q4, increased thirteen others, and exited fourteen, the Intel calls sat untouched. Not increased. Not trimmed. Not rolled. Through a year of management change at Intel, a product cycle transition, and the January 2025 DeepSeek sell-off.
During that sell-off, when most funds were reducing AI exposure, Aschenbrenner and Shulman “had already been tracking [DeepSeek] and saw the selloff as an overreaction. They bought instead of sold."2 Per Fortune, a major tech fund reportedly held back from selling after an analyst said: “Leopold says it’s fine.”
The Intel position never moved. The notional value grew from $454 million in Q1 to $747 million in Q4, entirely from stock price appreciation.6 Not a share added. Not a share removed.
Intel’s 18A foundry node is now shipping. Intel Foundry revenue is guided up double-digits sequentially for Q1 2026.7 The fund’s signature trade, the position that predates every other holding, is an all-options, zero-equity expression of the essay’s claim that US semiconductor independence is a national security imperative.
The Q4 pivot
This may be the most significant signal in the entire filing.
In Q3 2025, the fund held protective put options on NVIDIA, Broadcom, Taiwan Semiconductor, Micron, the VanEck Semiconductor ETF (SMH), and CoreWeave.8 Across six names, covering the fund’s core semiconductor and compute exposure. Downside hedges. Insurance.
In Q4, every single one was sold.1
The NVIDIA puts: sold. The Broadcom puts: sold. The Taiwan Semi puts: sold. The Micron puts: sold. The semiconductor ETF puts: sold. The CoreWeave puts: sold. The only remaining put in the portfolio is a $8.9 million position on Infosys.1
Simultaneously: the fund added new call positions on EQT and Bloom Energy, increased CoreWeave calls by 367%, built an $876 million Bloom Energy equity stake, and initiated positions in eight new names.1
A fund that was long AI infrastructure with hedged downside protection moved to unhedged, leveraged, max-conviction positioning in a single quarter. The hedges were not rolled to different strikes or expirations. They were removed.
The convergence
The fund’s Q4 positioning aligned with public statements from the companies themselves. EQT’s management announced on their Q3 earnings call that the company is deliberately unhedged for 2026 and beyond, citing a “structurally bullish” outlook on natural gas prices driven by data centre power demand.9 The fund initiated EQT calls the same quarter.1 Bloom Energy’s CEO stated that fuel cell systems are “a vital business necessity” for data centres, not a last resort.10 The fund built its largest combined position, $911 million, around that claim.^1^ And NVIDIA invested $2 billion in CoreWeave at $87.20 per share in January 2026, with Jensen Huang calling it “the largest infrastructure buildout in human history."11 The fund had increased its CoreWeave calls by 367% in the quarter preceding that announcement.1
These are not the fund’s claims. They are the companies’ own words and NVIDIA’s own capital.
The calendar
Four earnings dates follow the filing:
February 18: EQT reports Q4 before the open.9 February 26: CoreWeave reports Q4 after the close. The options market currently embeds an expected earnings move of +/-18.22%.11 April 23: Intel reports Q1 after the close.7 May 6: Bloom Energy reports Q1.10
Two of the four call-option names report within fifteen days of the filing date. The filing itself discloses positions as of December 31, 2025, a snapshot now six weeks old. 13F filings carry a 45-day reporting lag. The fund’s current positions may differ.
The filing, the essay, and the portfolio
In June 2024, Aschenbrenner published a thesis predicting that superintelligence would arrive by the end of this decade and that the binding constraints would be physical: chips, compute, power, and fuel.4 Eighteen months later, the Q4 13F shows 28 positions spanning every link in that physical supply chain, with instrument-level differentiation between leveraged call exposure and straight equity, a Q4 pivot from hedged positioning to full conviction, and an unchanged signature trade on Intel foundry independence running through the centre of it.
The essay describes what happens. The filing describes how he’s positioned for it. The earnings calendar describes when we find out.
Footnotes
1 Situational Awareness LP, 13F-HR Filing, Q4 2025, SEC EDGAR, filed February 11, 2026. Period of report: December 31, 2025. CIK 0002045724. Total portfolio value: $5,518,680,000.
2 Fund background per Fortune (October 8, 2025), Wall Street Journal, TheMinerMag, Wikipedia, Medium (November 20, 2025). Investors include Patrick and John Collison (Stripe), Nat Friedman (former GitHub CEO), Daniel Gross (AI Grant). Carl Shulman serves as Director of Research. Fund has approximately 4 employees. DeepSeek anecdote per Fortune. Unverified full-year performance per Medium, explicitly noted as unconfirmed.
3 Fund performance per Wall Street Journal, via TheMinerMag (August 19, 2025): +47% net of fees for H1 2025, vs. S&P 500 +6%.
4 Leopold Aschenbrenner, “Situational Awareness: The Decade Ahead,” self-published, June 2024.
5 Core Scientific Schedule 13D, SEC EDGAR, filed August 19, 2025. Amended ~October 2025. Per filing: “The Fund used $213,190,431.12 of working capital to acquire the shares, largely through a series of open-market purchases in July and August 2025.” Shares “acquired for investment because they considered [them] undervalued.” Fund increased stake from 5.8% to 9.4% (28,756,478 shares) ahead of a proxy vote on a proposed CoreWeave acquisition of Core Scientific. Per Blockspace Media, TheMinerMag.
6 Intel call position tracking per 13F filings: Q1 2025 (20,237,400 shares, $459.6M notional), Q2 2025 (unchanged, $453.3M), Q3 2025 (unchanged), Q4 2025 (unchanged, $746.8M). Notional increase reflects INTC stock price appreciation from ~$22 to ~$37. Per SEC EDGAR, 13f.info, Daniel Scrivner.
7 Intel Q4 2025 earnings per TipRanks, Investing.com, company guidance. EPS $0.15 (beat $0.08 guidance). Revenue $13.7B (5th consecutive beat). Intel Foundry Q1 revenue guided up double-digits sequentially. 18A node shipping. Next earnings: April 23, 2026 after close.
8 Q3 2025 put positions per 13F and 13f.info: NVDA puts (1,600,000 shares), AVGO puts (230,000), TSM puts (270,000), MU puts (300,000), SMH puts (600,000), CRWV puts (1,400,000). All exited in Q4.
9 EQT Corporation Q3 2025 earnings call per TipRanks, MarketReportAnalytics. Trailing 4Q FCF >$2.3B. Avg realised gas price $3.25/MMBtu. Company deliberately unhedged for 2026+. MVP expansion upsized 20% to >600,000 dth/day on 20-year contracts. Management stated “structurally bullish on natural gas prices.” Next earnings: February 18, 2026 before open.
10 Bloom Energy Q4 2025 earnings per Investing.com, FinancialContent, StockStory. Revenue $777.7M (beat $655.1M by 18.7%). 2026 guidance $3.1B--$3.3B. CEO quotes per FinancialContent. 52-week range: $15.15--$176.49. Fund held prior BE positions in Q3 under alternate CUSIP 093712AH0 (3,048,002 equity shares, 145,800 call equivalents); these were sold in Q4 and replaced with substantially larger positions under standard CUSIP 093712107. Next earnings: May 6, 2026.
11 NVIDIA, “NVIDIA Invests $2 Billion in CoreWeave," NVIDIA Newsroom, January 26, 2026. Purchase price $87.20/share. Jensen Huang quote per NVIDIA Newsroom. CoreWeave expected earnings move +/-18.22% per Unusual Whales. CoreWeave Q3 2025 per TipRanks: revenue $1.4B (+134% YoY), backlog $55.6B, RPO >$50B, active power ~590 MW, contracted power >2.9 GW. Next earnings: February 26, 2026 after close.